Non-State Actress: More on Edge Than a Straight Man in a Gynecologist’s Office

I hate talking about Iran or Israel but HERE WE ARE FRIENDS

BLUF

"Unlikely" isn't "impossible," and regional conflicts have global consequences regardless of whether we drop bombs. Foreign policy crises reveal how decisions get made when Congress abdicates its constitutional role, markets get spooked by uncertainty, and citizens get left wondering what the hell is happening. Pay attention, stay informed, and use your voice - because in a timeline this chaotic, civic engagement isn't just good citizenship, it's survival strategy.

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Press Play

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Last Week in Review

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Women. Life. Freedom…Airstrikes?

Over the last 7ish days (fun fact, when I typed this first time I wrote 'ten years,' which OY), things have "popped off" between Israel and Iran. One day after the US-set deadline for a deal with Iran regarding its ongoing nuclear program, yet while negotiations were still ongoing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered air attacks on Iranian military and nuclear facilities.

Israel's attack, and subsequent strikes, have destroyed a significant number of Iranian targets including heavy water reactors, oil refineries and similar energy reserves, and killed quite a few senior Iranian military leaders. These same leaders are crucial to Iran's proxy force network, among other things. That proxy network includes Hamas. Hamas is an internationally recognized terrorist organization that has victimized Israelis, Palestinians, and honestly just anyone who isn't in Hamas for decades. The entity murdered more than 1,200 civilians of more than 40 different nationalities in the October 7, 2023 terrorist attack at the Nova Music Festival in Israel. The number of wounded and those raped and sexually assaulted is even higher. Hamas took 251 people from 29 different countries hostage during the attack. As of June 20, 148 people were rescued or released alive and 52 bodies were returned. There are 52 remaining hostages, 29 of whom are deceased.

Iran responded to the June 13, 2025 attacks with attacks on Israel the same evening and the conflict continues as of June 20, 2025. To date, a significant number of Iran's attempts using missiles, drones, and potentially other capabilities, are and were intercepted by Israeli defenses but not all. Bombs exploded during attacks on Soroka Hospital, the largest hospital in the south of Israel and a residential building in Bat Yam. Iran also hit energy resources and an academic research center.

Reports suggest Iran's missile stockpile is now down by at least 50% and the Regime says it won't negotiate on the nuclear program while under attack. Netanyahu's government seems to have no intention of stopping, President Trump says he'll make a decision about whether the US will 'get involved' in the next two weeks, and global sentiment is about as cohesive as a Betsey Johnson runway show (we love an icon).

Awesome.

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Why The Hell Are We in this Timeline

If by 'this timeline' you mean 'why did Israel bomb Iran, why is Iran bombing Israel,' well:

So, quick background:

The United States and Iran entered into a deal called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to limit Iran's nuclear program and explicitly to prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon. Was it a perfect deal? Such a thing does not exist. But as one of my former bosses, Admiral (ret.) William J. Fallon said at the time, "it is not a perfect deal but no deal at all is much, much worse." Considering the man commanded the US forces in both Central Command and Pacific Command, he probably knows what he is talking about.

Current President Donald Trump withdrew from that deal during his first term. In the intervening years, Iran had no incentive to stop production and there were no internationally organized inspections to confirm compliance with the previous deal. The Iranian Regime took the opportunity to return to making progress on its nuclear program and it has caused a LOT of unpleasant outcomes. Most significant for this conversation? The development of the nuclear program has sharpened Iran's threats against Israel and brought Iran's proxy network closer to nuclear weapons, which is not ideal.

So what are Iran and Israel aiming for? The two governments are after very different outcomes.

What Israel Wants

The Iranian regime constantly articulates its relentless desire to obliterate Israel, and Jews, from the earth - never mind the many non-Jews who live in Israel. Israel's current government sees the Regime's nuclear program as an existential threat to Israel's existence, so Netanyahu's government is looking to obliterate the Iranian regime and its nuclear and general capabilities.

Israel and its allies do have the literal resources to execute this mission, but perhaps not the political will. Still, this desire requires destroying facilities buried deep underground (because if Chernobyl taught us anything it's that nuclear materials and people are in a super complicated relationship), weapons stockpiles, and surface-level energy resources plus the leadership - both military and scientific - to prevent the return of those material resources. As Israel continues to destroy a number of the offices and labs these men (yeah, not a ton of Iranian women working in labs or in the Iranian military) work in, attention turns to their homes. Many live in densely populated Tehran, including in apartment buildings.

What Iran Wants

Iran wants to wipe Israel off the map, but doesn't have the juice to back it up as long as it does not have a nuclear weapon. So, Iran's authoritarian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is after influence projection and keeping everyone - but especially Israel - more on edge than a straight man in a gynecologist's office. The Iranian regime does not have even remotely comparable material, institutional, or procedural capabilities to Israel. In addition to having no meaningful air defense or a civilian population with a deeply embedded preparation culture (Israel has air raid and bomb shelters like the tri-state area has nail salons), Iran does not have the intelligence infrastructure Israel is famous and infamous for. As we've talked about before, Iran is a big fan of unconventional, asymmetric, and proxy-based agitation and warfare. They know they can't win, but they'll hang on as long as they can to make sure no one else does either.

Cool, cool, cool. So now that we've established why two countries on the other side of the world are trying to blow each other up, let's talk about the part that's keeping Americans up at night…in case that in and of itself is somehow not enough.

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“Ok, But Are We Gonna Die?”

I got this question in a text from a friend, and it felt like the most efficient way to talk about the US piece here. Or, potential US piece. Basically, it felt like the question on a lot of people's mind so let's just deal with it.

President Trump has been less than clear in articulating whether or not the US would offer military or material support to Israel's offensive engagement against Iran. This uncertainty is made worse by his declaration that he will, "decide whether or not the US will bomb Iran in the next two weeks." Look, there is something to be said for diplomatic uncertainty (as discussed earlier this week 😏). However, I think it is safe to say this is more uncomfortable than the uncertainty between when you ask your situationship to a friend's wedding and when they actually respond.

The vibe is uncomfortable because not knowing if the United States as an entity and as a military filled with real, live, people are going to enter into a kinetic conflict with Iran based on a sudden escalation is not ideal. It's also uncomfortable because it's not actually supposed to be up to the President if the United States as an entity and as a military filled with real, live, people are going to enter into a kinetic conflict. It's supposed to be decided by Congress!

It's been a really long time since Congress has understood its job and done it all the way, and it is true that bombing a place is not necessarily legally the same as entering into a war with that place. These distinctions are important, because Congress is the only entity with the power for an actual declaration of war.

However, the US has not actually declared war since World War II.

Instead of formal declarations of war, the US has used AUMFs (Authorizations of Military Force) resolutions in Congress, invitations to engage from allied governments, self-defense, and UN Security Council resolutions. And if you feel like you didn't hear about an AUMF against Iran lately, it's because you haven't. Instead, there's been an open AUMF since right after September 11 (2001) under which the War on Terror unfolded. The AUMF allows the President "use of all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons."

Given Iran's proxy network…yeah.

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But, back to the question at hand. Are we gonna die?

Eventually, yes. As a result of an immediate conflict with Iran? Probably not - but that doesn't mean we can take our eye off the ball.

Look, is it possible for the US to get kinetically involved with Iran? Absolutely. The legal framework exists (hello, post-9/11 AUMF), the military capability is there, and Trump's whole "I'll decide in two weeks" thing suggests it's on the table. If this were to happen, it would be absolutely chaotic - like, "everyone's-retirement-accounts-suddenly-become-Monopoly-money" levels of chaotic. We're talking about a conflict that could reshape the entire Middle East, spike oil prices into the stratosphere, and potentially drag in other regional powers who are already twitchy about the whole situation.

But here's the thing: it's probably not going to happen. And not because President Trump suddenly discovered traditional diplomacy (though stranger things have occurred), but because the US is still trying to engage Iran in negotiations about the nuclear program.

Yes, even while Israel is literally bombing their facilities.

It's like trying to have a calm conversation about your relationship while your partner is setting your stuff on fire in the driveway - not ideal conditions, but apparently where we are.

More importantly, if the US were seriously planning to bomb Iran, we probably would have done it already. Think about it: Israel has been conducting these strikes for over a week. If the administration wanted to join the "party," the optimal time would have been right at the beginning when they could claim it was coordinated defensive action. Instead, we're getting presidential statements that sound like a Magic 8-Ball response ("Reply hazy, try again in two weeks") and leave even Senator Ted Cruz to be skewered by Tucker Carlson.

Suffice to say, getting directly involved in this conflict would create approximately seventeen new problems for every one it might solve, and most of those new problems would be bigger versions of problems we are ignoring (Iran, China, Russia, and North Korea getting ever closer, the degradation of Rule of Law and democratic freedom around the world, etc.). Plus, the US is more internally fractured than a dropped phone screen.

There are lots of reasons for the United States not to bomb Iran in this moment, and some decent indications it isn't likely to happen. But, honesty is the best policy: unlikely is not impossible and the US does not have to bomb Iran for this to get even worse.

History - even not so far off history - is desperately, always, trying to remind us that what happens in one country impacts what is happening…everywhere else. Oil prices, global markets, refugee crises, terrorism risks - all of these ripple outward from regional conflicts. Plus, "unlikely" is not the same as "impossible," and in a world where a reality TV star became president twice, we should probably keep our definitions of "impossible" pretty flexible.

What is a girl to do in all the chaos? Remember that mention of the United States Congress I made? Let's go back to them for a minute.

Members of Congress - both the House and the Senate - are elected. Elected by people who vote for them.

If you want the US to bomb Iran OR you don't want the US to bomb Iran, you should call and tell your elected leaders that! And perhaps tell them whatever else you'd like them to do or not do - that's literally what the phones are for.

So while you probably don't need to start stockpiling canned goods if you aren't already (shout out to my fellow hoarders of beans, primarily because we eat an absolute f*ck ton of them), this is definitely one of those situations where staying informed isn't just good citizenship - it's good survival strategy.

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Wrap It Up

We live in a world where a single decision by one person can reshape global energy markets, trigger refugee crises, and potentially drag nuclear-armed nations into conflict - all while most of us are just trying to figure out what's for dinner. The Iran-Israel situation isn't just about Middle Eastern geopolitics; it's a masterclass in how quickly "somewhere else's problem" becomes everyone's problem whether you're paying attention or not. The choice isn't whether global events will affect you - it's whether you'll be informed enough to respond thoughtfully when they do. In a timeline where reality consistently outpaces fiction, staying engaged isn't paranoia, it's preparation.