Non-State Actress: The Iceberg #8

May 13, 2025: Don't Test Me, I Bite // Lots of Reasons Democracy Keeps Going

Last Week in Review

BLUF

Yes, the last week feels as intense as a behind the scenes look at America’s Next Top Model (hint: lots of power-player induced trauma, v little fun) but democracy bites back. Around the world, democratic nations are flexing transparency muscles through public accountability and showing up for the girls via multilateral collaboration. Non-governmental organizations are refusing to give up on women, which we love, and I am asking Bill Belichick to show up for the institution that raised us both.

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India-Pakistan Ceasefire Drama

Relevant Muppet Relationship: Statler & Waldorf (critical commentary from the balcony)
Unscripted TV Equivalent: "Survivor" (alliances forming, breaking, with immunity challenges)
Millennial Jam: "We Are Never Ever Getting Back Together" by Taylor Swift

Catch Up: President Trump announced a ceasefire between India and Pakistan on May 10 and it’s giving major on-again-off-again energy, with both sides immediately blaming each other for violations after it took effect. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed all involved had agreed to "stop all firing and military action" on land, air, and sea – but tensions quickly resurfaced despite the formal agreement.

The high-stakes diplomatic process apparently involved intensive engagement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio and VP JD Vance, with the US’ chief diplomat (Rubio) serving as lead negotiator between Indian PM Modi, Pakistani PM Sharif, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, Pakistan's Army Chief Munir, and both countries' National Security Advisors. Sure, there is some speculation that the ceasefire went Instagram Official before it was *actually* signed but tbh, would not be the first time. Anyway, the complexity of these negotiations reflects the deep historical tensions between these nuclear powers.

What This Means for Americans: This isn't just diplomatic formality – it's two nuclear-armed neighbors in "a dangerous spiral of tit-for-tat strikes" affecting 4 million Indian-Americans and Pakistani-Americans who maintain connections to the region. The success or failure of this U.S.-brokered deal directly impacts America's credibility as a conflict mediator on the global stage and has implications for regional stability in South Asia.

Democratic Upsides: The way both countries' media are reporting ceasefire violations demonstrates the role of free press in conflict situations. As The Washington Post noted, eyewitnesses along the Line of Control quickly reported "loud explosions and swarms of drones overhead" after the ceasefire announcement. This transparency creates accountability that may help prevent further escalation through international scrutiny.

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U.S-China Trade Talk Glow-Up

Muppet Relationship: Dr. Teeth & Floyd Pepper (pragmatic dealmakers with competing agendas)
Unscripted TV Equivalent: "Million Dollar Listing" (high-stakes negotiations with forced smiles)
Millennial Jam: "Talking Body" by Tove Lo

Catch Up: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave "substantial progress" vibes after intensive Geneva talks with China, concluding on May 12. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng matched the energy, describing meetings as "collegial and professional" – diplomatic code for maintaining composure despite significant tensions. Are both nations looking for other trade partners? Probably. Does this mean your Amazon prices may stabilize? A girl can dream.

Bessent announced a 90-day pause on most he said/he said tariffs, adding that he expects to meet with Chinese officials again "in the next few weeks to get rolling on a more fulsome agreement." The dramatic backstory shouldn't be forgotten – tariffs had reached 145%, which Bessent previously called "the equivalent of a trade embargo" and "not sustainable" for either economy.

Some real, true, honest to gddess goodness though - a critical breakthrough moment with what Bessent described as "a very long and in-depth sidebar" regarding fentanyl between officials at the meeting. China is a major source and/or pass-through for the deadly and highly addictive drug. "I think that we saw here in Geneva that the Chinese are now serious about assisting the U.S. in stopping the flow of precursor drugs," Bessent confirmed. Bloomberg reported that both the U.S. and China characterized the talks as "substantial progress" toward de-escalating the trade war that has been disrupting the global economy.

What This Means for Americans: These negotiations directly impact the American economy through their potential effects on consumer prices, supply chains, and export opportunities. According to Reuters, "Financial markets have been on edge for signs of a thaw in a bitter U.S.-China trade war that has already begun to disrupt supply chains, prompt layoffs and raise wholesale prices." And I don’t think we needed Reuters to tell us that, but I do love a good citation. As for the fentanyl cooperation - this could literally save lives and undermine transnational criminal networks if it translates to reduced supply of these deadly substances reaching American communities.

Democratic Upsides: The transparent negotiation process, with the White House providing regular updates (something we’d like to see more of), demonstrates democratic accountability in international economic policymaking. As CNBC reported, "While details of the deal are still unclear, any de-escalation in the ongoing trade war could bring much-needed relief to a global economy that has been roiled since President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff announcement." This approach strengthens the norm that economic policies should be conducted with public oversight.