[REPOST] Non-State Actress #14: Lady Di, Taylor Swift, and the Big Machine of Proxy Wars
[A Restack with some additional info]. Just because you don't care about Taylor Swift doesn't mean you're immune to her impact, and Iran and Russia are exactly the same way!
UPDATE:
This post is nearly a year old and is to date one of only two things I’ve written directly, or indirectly, the ongoing situation in the Middle East. I’ve hesitated to do more because I was not convinced I had something useful to offer, and I stand by that hesitation on this platform.
However, at the urging of some friends with real (read: non-natsec nerd) lives, I recently started a pilot on WhatsApp Community where I’m offering daily explainers on various national security issues, concepts, and news items and direct links to additional resources for those looking to make national security make sense for them. There is also an optional group chat function where you can ask me questions, see what others want to know, and more.
I intended to wait another few weeks before opening it up to the masses, but here we are.
Access is limited to Paid Subscribers, and I’m running a special Early Adopters Discount for the next week. All new paid subscribers will get the link to join in their welcome email.
BLUF
Sometimes people fight wars or commit violence because they themselves have something to fight for or against, and sometimes people fight wars or commit violence because someone else hired them to. The relationships between these categories of actors has as much play in your life as Taylor Swift has on Super Bowl commercials and Lady Diana has on the Royal Family. So, a lot.
A special thank you to Sydney Sherry and Mercedes Sapuppo, both of the of Atlantic Council, for encouraging Taylor Swift and Princess Diana rather than house plants this time around.
Press Play
Early Taylor Swift and Proxy Wars
Ok, so like we just said: Sometimes people fight wars or commit violence because they themselves have something to fight for or against, and sometimes people fight wars or commit violence because someone else hired them to. The latter is called a proxy force or proxy war and it’s way more common than you might think.
It’s also really messy to explain- unless the phrase ‘Taylor’s Version’ means something to you. In which case, this will make total sense
Proxy Forces is Taylor to ‘Big Machine’ as Regular Force is Taylor to ‘Taylor’s Version’
It’s about ownership.
Proxy forces are people/groups of people whose interests, goals, and priorities overlap with the interests, goals, and priorities of a more major power and who are spurred into action directly or in directly by that major power. Maybe the ‘spurring’ is in the form of money, natural resources, economic opportunity, or influence or in the form of cutting off one or more of those things.
Do the proxy forces want to be there? Sure - just like Taylor wanted to record her early albums and Peter Pettigrew wanted power. But wanting to do something is not the same as having access to the people, expertise, money, and other resources required to make it happen. Any millennial whose ever woken up in the 21st century can confirm.
So ultimately what matters is who is controlling or enabling the proxies’ wildest dreams, how those fantasies are brought to life, why, and at what cost.
Group Project: War Edition
We all know that group projects are rarely experiences not directly descended from Satan in a totally not fun way. So, if you’re asking yourself why the Powers even bother with Proxies, you’re asking yourself a good question.
There are lots of *~~sTrAtEgIc~~* reasons Powers use Proxies. Maybe the Power doesn’t have enough capable human beings willing to fight under their flag or maybe the Power wants to pretend they aren’t involved/be “super sneaky” (hint: Powers - you’re not being sneaky. we all know it’s you).
Ultimately, it can be described simply as not being able to do it on their own OR the cost to doing so would be too damn high.
Musicians needs producers and record labels and vice versa - just like stronger players need proxies and the other way around. Neither is without power or leverage against the other, but there will always be more musicians looking for a record deal than record companies desperate for musicians.
Some musicians are better than others - and some proxy forces are better than others - but unless/until a musician goes from playing on the sidewalk for CashApp and Venmo contributions to a massive, economy-shifting, world tour there power dynamic is heavily in favor of the record company.
And until/unless a proxy force grows strong enough in money, resources, people, capability, and support to become its own independent fighting force (it’s possible!)
The Revolution Will Be Televised
Revolutionary and Major Powers - Definitions
Revolutionary Powers are actors (as in entities, not as in Oscar-snubbed Margot Robbie) whose interests and priorities are in conflict with the old way of doing things and status quo. Taylor Swift, who rerecorded her entire catalogue to override the sale of her intellectual property to a man who was (is?) obsessed with harassing her, is a Revolutionary.
Major Powers are actors who are invested in and benefit from the status quo. Most importantly, Major Powers can choose to the change the rules at any moment without much risk or at least the risk decreases over time. This sounds inherently negative but it really isn’t - because who better fits this definition than the Former (and rightful) Princess of Wales, Lady Di. She was a Revolutionary Power and now she’s Major.
We’ve talked about the power dynamics between the Proxy and The Power. Let’s get a little more specific about the role of The Power and talk about how that relationship exerts power over the global community.
Basically, let’s talk about Swifties.
To recap:
In the Big Machine Records days, Taylor Swift was a Proxy. And now, she’s a powerhouse.
The Eras Tour is the highest grossing tour in world history. 22 million people signed up for a chance at a ticket in *Singapore.* Congress held hearings into regulating scalping and price gouging as did legislatures in Brazil, Ireland, and the UK. She was Time Magazine’s 2023 Person of the Year. There’s an estimated $4.6 billion dollars in directly connected consumer spending in the US alone.
Ignoring Taylor Swift or pretending she isn’t a big deal simply because you “don’t take her seriously” doesn’t make her influence and place in pop culture less powerful. And if you’re naive enough to say that out loud in front of people you’ll quickly become absolutely NOT the prettiest girl at the party.
Swifties will eat you alive like piranhas coming off a juice cleanse and you’ll deserve it for confusing your personal preferences with factual evidence.
I am not a Swifty, but I am a fan. I draw the distinction simply because I know and love many Swifties and would not offend them by pretending I am on their level. I jam out to Anti-Hero and Better than Revenge. I am an adamant defender and appreciator of her incredible accomplishments and find most of her detractors to be bitter and inappropriately obsessed with her sex life.
Again, regardless of anyones personal opinion the facts make it clear Taylor Swift is a Power. Specifically, she’s a Revolutionary Power.
One of the ways Revolutionary Powers grow and demonstrate their power is through their fan base, aka proxies. The Revolutionary Power/Proxy relationship is, as we discussed, both straightforward and totally chaotic. What’s most relevant for our conversation though is that Revolutionary Powers’ tap into the interests of the the proxies and deepen those ties and attachments. There’s a lot of narrative and trust building, and then the Revolutionary Power is able to harness the resources of the proxies via exchange.
It’s like Swiftie easter eggs (narrative building) creating a common cause and identity that enables Swift to harness Swiftie resources (selling Eras Tours tickets, icing out Scooter Braun from human society) and influence priorities and interests (so many Swifties care about the NFL now, the advertisements are changing).
Iran/Russia, TSwift/Lady Di
Iran and Russia are in the news a lot, and with good reason. Historically not the best of friends, one is a Revolutionary Power and the other is at least referred to as a Major Power.
Different eras, just like TSwift and Lady Di, but current realties are bringing them together 🙃.
Taylor Swifts evolution from Proxy to Revolutionary Power and her enormous impact on the world is, honestly, almost identical in terms flow to that of Iran. To be clear, I am NOT calling TSwift a violent, authoritarian regime okay?
Lady Di’s staying power (deserved or not, again - personal opinion is not relevant here)? Russia.
The more you understand Taylor Swift Culture and her relationship to Swifties and the continuing impact of Lady Di and her legacy on social culture, particularly now, the more you understand pop culture. Similarly, the more you understand Powers and Proxies, the more clear how utterly intertwined Iran and Russia are in so much of the current global unrest is.
Let’s dive in.
Iran
Generally, Iran’s ties to its proxy forces are well established and accepted, meaning the evidence is so direct (like sending money and weapons to armed groups) there isn’t the need for much investigative analysis. In some cases, the Iranian regime publicly communicates and acknowledges the relationships. Nothing like hard launching your Proxy Sugar Baby on Instagram!
Here is a list of entities with established ties to the Iranian regime compiled by the Council on Foreign Relations, many of which we talked about in our last issue1 2:
Russia
Russia does proxy forces a bit differently than Iran, just like Swifties are maybe a bit different from Lady Dihards (their name not mine…).
PMCs or private military contractors are more common within Russia’s direct network than Iran. It’s literally exactly the same thing as a Proxy Force in this case except these entities are actual military forces as businesses - as in, for hire. Like, the interest is in making money so the PMC will go wherever the work is, whereas traditionally Iranian proxy’s are united by ideological priorities.
There are A LOT of PMCs and I’m guessing you’ve heard of at least one of them - even if you don’t realize it: The Wagner Group - designated and sanctioned by the US government and many others as a Transnational Criminal Organization. The Wagner Group, whose members are referred to as Wagnerites, Musicians, or the Orchestra, is actually a network of different affiliated companies under one umbrella. And The Wagner Group is enormous.
Founded in 2014 to enable Russia’s invasion of Ukraine focused in Crimea, Wagner had about 50,000 people in Ukraine - approximately 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts from Russian prisons - in 2023. There are even more people in even more places, it’s very Michelle Branch.
Here is a list of *confirmed* Wagner Group ‘Engagements’ from Stanford’s Center for International Security and Cooperation. Check out their full resource on Wagner Group because it’s honestly super helpful.
Libya
Central African Republic
Belarus
Syria
Madagascar
Sudan
Mali
Mozambique
Venezuela
Democratic Republic of the Congo
The relationship between The Wagner Group and the Russian government is messy to say the least. The Russian government refers to it as a private company but treats it like an extension of its own military. There’s also a power struggle probably?
The head of Wagner - who was growing in popularity to the point that Russia accused Wagner Group of attempting a coup, died in a mysterious plane crash a few months ago. It was on the news a bunch.
Iran and Russia
Historically, Iran and Russia/ the Soviet Union are not frenemies they’re just regular enemies. Almost Lady Di v Camilla vibes, some might say.
The conflict makes sense - one is a fundamentalist regime with a religious focused ideology and the other Communist. There was a time not that long ago when Iran’s then-Supreme Leader hated the Soviet Union as much as he hated America, which is like… a lot.
But, things change.
In recent decades, Iran and present-day Russia have found more and more shared hobbies like supporting violent and anti-democratic leaders in Syria and sharing intelligence because they hate the same people3. Who else is often united by a shared hatred of someone else? Middle schoolers. Petty, low brow, but WOW can they be *really* mean.
Now imagine the two most powerful middle schoolers you know band together and weaponize their social status to wreak havoc and terror through three-way calls and cafeteria surveys.
It can quickly go from Mean Girls to The Heathers (people die in The Heathers) - and that’s what happened here.
Are We Loosing the Thread? Maybe?
Just like we said before: whether or not you care about Taylor Swift, her actions impact you and are seeping into your daily life. And Lady Di fundamentally altered the British Royal Family’s relationship with the public, the repercussions of which are *still* front page news.
Think I’m kidding?
Maybe you find an increasing number of news shows obsessively discussing Taylor Swift’s dating life or the advertisements you hear and see across social and normal media are changing because she’s altering the audience.
Maybe your noticing the fashion trends reference The Revenge Dress or Diana Chic.
Maybe you now occasionally say “It’s me. I’m the problem, it’s me.“
Maybe your friends, family, colleagues, peers, cousins, or frenemies suddenly know an awful lot about the Kansas City Chiefs.
No one is immune from the impact of Taylor Swift or Lady Di - the same with Iran, Russia, and their proxies.
Wrap Up
Ok, so what does this have to do with you?
Great question friends.
At first I was going to provide a list of all the ongoing conflicts and wars that either directly involve Russian or Iranian forces or Iranian, Russian, or Iranian and Russian proxies but then it was like “Is this a conflict? Is it a war? Is it a flair up? Will this list ever end?”
A few months back we talked about F-16s and Ukraine and I explained that getting the planes to Ukraine was important and training the pilots is important, and that it is in part important because it’s a long-term endeavor - a commitment. I even explained it on TV!
Well, Russia is giving Iran helicopters and airplanes and the two countries are making drones together. And those drones take bombs with them and go every where - like to Jordan where those drones attack a US military base and kill 3 US Army soldiers.
And to the Houthis who use those drones to bomb US-owned ships.
Ukraine, Hamas, Hizbollah, the Syrian Regime, Houthi Rebel Forces - all words and phrases and conflicts and places we’re hearing everywhere all the time.
And all with undeniable connections to Iran, Russia, or both.
By understanding and identifying these relationships IRL, we can see how interconnected world events are without falling into a conspiracy theory rabbit hole.
Like we said - just because you can’t see at first glance or want to ignore Taylor Swift doesn’t mean she isn’t impacting your daily cultural life. Iran and Russia’s actions and impact are exactly the same, and they have their own version of Swifties called Proxies.
Gimme More
3 US Services Members Killed, Others Injured Following Drone Attack in Jordan - DOD News
Subscribe to News Alerts and Press Releases Directly from the Department of Defense - Department of Defense
The Strength of Weak Ties (1973) - Mark Granovetter
Why Taylor Swift is Rerecording All Her Old Songs - Constance Grady, Vox (August 2023)
Iran’s Regional Armed Network - Kali Robinson and Will Merrow, Council on Foreign Relations (January 2024)
Iran’s Islamist Proxies - Ashley Lane, Wilson Center (Sept 2023)
The Heathers - Movie, 1998
The Persian-Russian Connection - Dan Byman and Ken Pollack, Lawfare Media (October 2023)
Friends or Frenemies? - Nicole Grajewski, Foreign Policy Research Institute (March 2020)
Iran, Russia, and the Syrian Regime Are Coordinating to Expel US Forces from Syria - Andie Parry, Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, and Brian Carter, Institute for the Study of War (August 2023)
Iran Arms Russia in Ukraine - Robin Wright, The New Yorker
US Warns of Expanding Iran, Russia ‘Defen[s]e’ Partnership - Al Jazeera News (2022)
Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Attack US-owned Ship in the Gulf of Aden with Bomb-Carrying Drone - Jon Gambrell, Associated Press (Jan 2024)
The Wagner Group - Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation
https://www.cfr.org/article/irans-regional-armed-network#:~:text=For%20instance%2C%20Hamas's%20October%202023,Middle%20East%2C%20U.S.%20officials%20say.
Iran, Russia, and the Syrian Regime Are Coordinating to Expel US Forces, Institute for the Study of War https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-russia-and-syrian-regime-are-coordinating-expel-us-forces-syria#:~:text=Iran%2C%20Russia%2C%20and%20the%20Syrian%20regime%20surged%20forces%20to%20eastern,senior%20level%20for%20operational%20planning.